Over the past year I’ve seen plenty of editorials predicting snarls and service drops as internet usage skyrockets. And frankly I haven’t paid much attention. But lately I’m starting to wonder if there might not be some wisdom to these doom and gloom scenarios. After all why should the ‘unlimited’ internet bandwidth be any different than any other supposedly unlimited resource — and which eventually prove to not really be inexhaustible.
We forget that during the dot com boom years in the late 90s a lot of fiber was put into the ground, and we ended up with much more capacity than anyone needed at the time. But since then there hasn’t been anywhere near that kind of infrastructure investment, while traffic has grown exponentially. Long term will things catch up? — yes I think they will. Short term are there problems coming? It would be foolish not to expect some. It makes me wonder if this is the best time to move on-site resources into the ‘cloud’. Google apps for education, YouTube University, iTunesU — they all come with great features and the price is almost too good to be true — basically free. Other universities are making the move, and gaining all sorts of benefits. It makes a guy feel stupid for not following their lead — and maybe I am. But one of the benefits of having been around a while is you remember that things go up, and times are good. But they also go down, and times can be lean. Taking a long term, and cautious view, can help even things out. Sure you miss the quick gains/benefits, but you also miss the inevitable runs off the cliff edge. Sure, maybe I’m missing the boat — but then again maybe that boat is the Titanic.
The Internet sky really is falling
The bottom line? We were right. YouTube recently announced it’s discontinuing video delivery to certain geographies due to — ahem — lack of access capacity. And providers from telcos to cable companies are implementing “usage caps” to keep users from, er, consuming “too much” bandwidth. Seems the only thing we got wrong was the timing –we anticipated the crunch hitting in the 2011/2012 timeframe, but we’re seeing it happening already.
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Randall Rode's online home for thoughts, notes, and experiments with a wide range of technology topics. Visit the about page for info on my recent projects and professional background. I welcome your comments!
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